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(AP) - Each ton of carbon dioxide that exits a smokestack or tailpipe is doing far more damage than what governments take into account, researchers conclude in a scientific paper published Thursday.
Major
hurricanes pack more rain, while extremes of wildfire, drought and downpours
are all happening more often and with more intensity due to climate change,
causing loss of communities, homes and lives all over the world. But what is
the actual cost in dollar terms of the carbon emissions driving climactic
change?
That’s what
researchers from a variety of fields — science, economics, medicine — are
trying to figure out through a metric called the social cost of carbon, a price
that represents the total climate damage caused to society through carbon
emissions. It’s been used in the past to justify tougher limits on carbon
emissions and more spending on climate solutions, like transitioning to
renewable energy and natural flood protection.
Currently,
the United States government uses a price of $51 per ton of carbon dioxide
emitted, but the researchers wrote in the journal Nature that the price should
be $185 per ton — 3.6 times higher than the current U.S. standard.
“Our results
suggest that we are vastly underestimating the harm from each additional ton of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,” said Kevin Rennert, a study author and
director of the federal climate policy initiative at Resources for the Future,
an environmental nonprofit based in Washington, D.C. “And the implication is
that the benefits of government policies and other actions that reduce global
warming pollution are greater than has been estimated.”
Rennert and
colleagues created an updated model to measure the societal cost of emitting
carbon that includes several measures excluded in previous research. They say
key additions include a better accounting of the uncertainty of future climate
policy, economic growth and environmental phenomena like sea level rise. They
also include damages to ecosystems, biodiversity and human health, which
previously weren’t accounted for.
The changes
come in response to a 2017 report from the National Academy of Sciences,
Engineering and Medicine that said current carbon pricing calculations were
inadequate and gave several recommendations for bringing the outdated models up
to speed.
Researchers
began calculating damages from carbon emissions in the 1980s and before 2017,
the last updates to the modelling were in the early to mid 1990s, “when the
Counting Crows were still at the top of the charts,” said Max Auffhammer, an
author of the 2017 report and professor of international sustainable
development at the University of California, Berkeley. Auffhammer, who was not
involved in the Nature study, praised the updated model.
But not all
of the authors of the 2017 report think the updated model presented in Nature
is ready for use on the federal level.
“I found it to be .... an interesting academic
piece. It offers a lot of food for thought,” said Steven Rose, another author
of the 2017 report and a senior research economist at the Electric Power
Research Institute. “However, I also thought it’s a long way from what the
current administration needs,” he said, noting the new research relied on
limited prior damage studies.
In the U.S.
federal officials began applying the cost estimate to new regulations more than
a decade ago after environmentalists successfully sued the government for not
taking greenhouse gas emissions into account when setting vehicle mileage
standards.
The $51 per
ton estimate under Biden restored a figure used during the Obama
administration. The Trump administration had reduced the figure to about $7 or
less per ton. The lowered estimate counted only damages felt in the U.S.
Republicans
have fought against using estimated future climate damages to steer policy, and
officials in 23 states last year joined together on a pair of lawsuits claiming
the Biden administration’s use of the social cost of carbon was illegal. Led by
the attorneys general of Louisiana and Missouri, the states allege the Biden
administration wants to use the future costs to justify stringent curbs on
energy companies and other polluting industries.
The GOP
states won a temporary victory in February when a judge in Louisiana blocked
the administration’s use of the $51-per-ton value. That was reversed in March
by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which said the states had not shown
any specific harm caused by the administration’s consideration of climate
damages.
The states
are still pressing the lawsuits and in June argued before the 8th U.S. Circuit
Court of Appeals seeking to again block the administration.
At the core
of the legal dispute is how much effect the social cost of carbon will have on
industry. That’s likely to be much greater at a higher value of $185 per ton,
because as potential future damages become more costly, the benefits from
avoiding those damages through more stringent rules grow accordingly.
“It suggests there are many more actions we
can take to curb carbon emissions that are going to be on the table that were
not on the table before,” said Stanford University economist Marshall Burke.
While the
social cost of carbon has been considered in more than a dozen actions under
Biden – including tougher fuel efficiency standards for cars and light trucks
and new oil and gas lease sales on public lands – federal officials have said
in court briefings that so far it has not been a deciding factor.
The Biden
administration was due to release an updated estimate in January, but that was
delayed in part by the litigation from states.
The White
House said it is still reviewing the best way to price climate damages when
making policy decisions. But officials already have determined that the interim
price of $51 per ton is too low. In an analysis of the new climate law
published last week by the White House Office of Management and Budget,
officials wrote that “the interim social cost of carbon estimates are currently
significantly underestimated because they do not account for many important
climate damage categories, such as ocean acidification.”
An agency
spokesperson declined to give a timeline for a new cost estimate.
“This
Administration remains committed to accounting for the costs of greenhouse gas
emissions as accurately as possible, and we continue to assess how best to
account for these costs in regulatory and budgetary contexts in the future,”
the Office of Management and Budget said in a statement to The Associated
Press.
Drew Costley
reported from Washington, D.C. and Matthew Brown reported from Billings,
Montana.
Follow Drew
Costley and Matthew Brown on Twitter: @drewcostley and @matthewbrown.
The
Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard
Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely
responsible for all content.\